Analisis Determinan Karakter Siswa Menggunakan Explainable Machine Learning (SHAP) dan Klasterisasi Profil Sekolah Studi Kasus Rapor Pendidikan Provinsi Bali
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.53863/kst.v7i02.1988Kata Kunci:
Educational Data Mining, Random Forest, SHAP, Karakter Siswa, Rapor PendidikanAbstrak
Penguatan karakter siswa merupakan indikator kinerja utama dalam kurikulum Merdeka Belajar, namun identifikasi faktor determinan lingkungan sekolah yang paling berpengaruh terhadap capaian karakter seringkali masih bersifat asumtif. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mendekonstruksi pola hubungan antara iklim lingkungan sekolah dengan kualitas karakter siswa di Provinsi Bali secara kuantitatif. Menggunakan dataset Rapor Pendidikan Indonesia yang dirilis oleh Kementerian Pendidikan Dasar dan Menengah (Kemendikdasmen) periode 2023-2025 dengan total 727 entri data, penelitian ini menerapkan metodologi Educational Data Mining dengan algoritma Random Forest yang diperkuat dengan Synthetic Minority Over-sampling Technique (SMOTE) untuk menangani ketimpangan data. Kebaruan (novelty) penelitian ini terletak pada penggunaan SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) untuk transparansi model dan K-Means Clustering untuk pemetaan zonasi. Hasil eksperimen menunjukkan model mampu memprediksi capaian karakter dengan akurasi 77,03%. Analisis SHAP mengungkap temuan menarik bahwa Iklim Kebinekaan (skor pengaruh 0,45) dan Iklim Kesetaraan Gender (0,22) adalah prediktor terkuat, jauh melampaui pengaruh Iklim Keamanan (0,13). Temuan ini membantah asumsi umum bahwa keamanan fisik adalah faktor tunggal terpenting. Lebih lanjut, analisis klasterisasi mengidentifikasi tiga tipologi sekolah di Bali, termasuk satu klaster "Rawan" yang memiliki skor kritis pada aspek kesetaraan gender dan kebinekaan meskipun memiliki skor keamanan yang memadai. Penelitian ini merekomendasikan pergeseran fokus kebijakan pendidikan di Bali dari pendekatan keamanan fisik menuju penguatan program toleransi dan kesetaraan gender yang terbukti memiliki dampak statistik lebih signifikan.
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Hak Cipta (c) 2025 Md. Wira Putra Dananjaya, Ngakan Nyoman Kutha Krisnawijaya, Gede Humaswara Prathama, I Gusti Ngurah Darma Paramartha, Adie Wahyudi Oktavia Gama
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